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2024-12-14 00:38:02

CITIC Securities: The logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, in November, China's exports maintained a certain growth rate, exports to emerging markets maintained a high growth rate, and exports of mechanical and electrical products performed brilliantly. In the short term, both CCFI index and SCFI index are on the rise, and the logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. In the long run, if the United States imposes tariffs on China, China's export performance may be dragged down. However, based on the analysis of the import share structure of the United States, the European Union, Vietnam, Mexico and other economies, we can see that the current pattern of China's trade diversification has improved compared with the last round of Sino-US trade friction, and the trade between emerging markets and China has become closer and closer. The imposition of tariffs by the United States on China may affect the bilateral trade between China and the United States more, and domestic enterprises going to sea and re-exporting trade may still be effective ways to hedge the impact of US tariffs on China.Guotai Junan's annual strategy for innovative drugs in 2025: innovative pharmaceutical companies have accelerated into the harvest period, and the valuation has been at a historical low in the past five years. Guotai Junan said that the centralized purchasing policy has become stable, mature and normalized, and the marginal impact has weakened. Innovative drugs have gained policy inclination in the medical insurance negotiation. In the past two years, the policy has continued to promote pharmaceutical innovation, and the top-level design and local supporting chain support the development of innovative drugs. Commercial insurance is expected to bring new growth momentum to China's pharmaceutical market, and the overall industry trend is upward. At present, the trend of innovative drug industry is improving, the supply continues to accelerate, and a number of domestic innovative drugs are approved soon, which is expected to drive a new round of heavy volume. At the same time, the commercialization has achieved remarkable results and has occupied a dominant position in some sub-sectors. Pharma's performance continued to differentiate, and innovative drugs and just-needed drugs performed well. Biotech commercialization continues to increase, per capita yield continues to increase, the node of turning losses is approaching, and innovation ushers in the harvest period. Horizontal comparison: compared with overseas peers, the overall valuation of domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies is in a historically low range; Vertical comparison: the valuation of SW- pharmaceutical biology and SW- chemical preparations is at a historical low in the past five years, and it is expected that the valuation of subsequent sectors will pick up.Goldman Sachs: I don't agree that gold can't reach $3,000 under a strong dollar. Goldman Sachs said that we don't agree with the view that the price of gold can't rise to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025 when the dollar remains strong for a long time. We predict that gold will reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, and the reduction of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (rather than the strengthening of the US dollar) is the downside risk of this prediction.


Argentine President Millay: It will take four years to close the central bank. According to the video released by the media Infobae on Tuesday, Argentine President Millay said that it will take four years to close the country's central bank. Millay predicts that the economy will grow and inflation will fall next year. When asked about the possibility of closing the Argentine central bank in 2025, he said, "We don't have time. I have always said that it will take four years, and I have only been in power for one year. "More support policies for specialization and innovation are brewing. According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, up to now, China has cultivated a total of 14,600 "little giant" enterprises with specialization and innovation, and more than 140,000 small and medium-sized enterprises with specialization and innovation. Over 80% of the "Little Giant" enterprises are located in strategic emerging industrial chains such as integrated circuits and aerospace, and the number of enterprises in future industry-related fields such as artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy is nearly 5,000. The reporter was informed that the relevant departments will study and formulate guidance on building a mechanism to promote the development and growth of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, issue guidance on cultivating high-quality enterprises, continue to increase support for the cultivation of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, and promote the "expansion, quality improvement and strong chain" of specialized and innovative groups. (Economic Information Daily)Monetary policy has turned to "moderate easing", and experts say that it is expected to make greater efforts to lower the RRR and cut interest rates. The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on December 9 changed the orientation of monetary policy from "steady" to "moderate easing" next year. Experts said that under the orientation of "moderate easing", the monetary policy space was further opened. In terms of total amount, it is more reasonable and sufficient to maintain liquidity; In terms of price, appropriately reducing the financing cost will better reflect the effectiveness of monetary policy. Next year, even greater RRR cuts and interest rate cuts can be expected. In addition to lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates, experts said that structural monetary policy tools, buying government bonds, open market buyout reverse repurchase and other operations are expected to continue to expand the scale, increase the frequency of use, and continuously enhance the effectiveness and pertinence of monetary policy. (CSI)


Monetary policy has turned to "moderate easing", and experts say that it is expected to make greater efforts to lower the RRR and cut interest rates. The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on December 9 changed the orientation of monetary policy from "steady" to "moderate easing" next year. Experts said that under the orientation of "moderate easing", the monetary policy space was further opened. In terms of total amount, it is more reasonable and sufficient to maintain liquidity; In terms of price, appropriately reducing the financing cost will better reflect the effectiveness of monetary policy. Next year, even greater RRR cuts and interest rate cuts can be expected. In addition to lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates, experts said that structural monetary policy tools, buying government bonds, open market buyout reverse repurchase and other operations are expected to continue to expand the scale, increase the frequency of use, and continuously enhance the effectiveness and pertinence of monetary policy. (CSI)Argentine President Millay: It will take four years to close the central bank. According to the video released by the media Infobae on Tuesday, Argentine President Millay said that it will take four years to close the country's central bank. Millay predicts that the economy will grow and inflation will fall next year. When asked about the possibility of closing the Argentine central bank in 2025, he said, "We don't have time. I have always said that it will take four years, and I have only been in power for one year. "Nikkei futures opened down 95 points at 39,290 on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

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